Global Financial Meltdown, Stock Market Volatility And The Nigeria Economy

This study investigated the relationship between volatility in the United States economy and capital markets, and the Nigerian capital market and economy alike. The aim being to determine if the Nigerian bourse is volatile and if it is significantly affected by the current global economic meltdown (using data from the United States as proxies). Using secondary data for the period December, 1990 to December, 2008, the study made use of multiple regression analysis and the extension of Engle (1982) ARCH model, which is the GARCH model, developed by Bolerslav (1986).
The study found positive and significant relationship between volatility in the United States economy (and bourse) and volatility in the Nigerian economy (and bourse). The result also discovered that the level of volatility was higher in the Nigerian bourse and that the level of Nigeria"s economic performance is not significantly determined by the level of volatility in the Nigerian bourse though, a weak relationships exist. Because of this weak relationship and significant effects of external stocks on Nigeria"s economy and bourse in particular. It is recommended that the Nigerian economy be properly diversified in such a way that it does not depend upon only one source of revenue. Also, policy makers are advised to be careful in their use of the Nigerian bourse as a barometer to reflect performance in the general economy as our findings suggests that this could lead to misleading conclusions. Finally, we recommend an improvement in the depth and breadth of financial products currently obtained in the Nigerian bourse.

Discussion of Results, Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Discussion of Results

Table 1.5 shows the relationship between the global financial crisis and the Nigerian stock market for the period under study. Using the a priori criteria of evaluating the parameters, except the constant term, all other variables met no a priori expectations hence not fulfilling the economic criterion of the model. The results show that FXGR is linear (positive) and statistically insignificant to MKTPZ while, FDISMKT also have a linear (positive) and statistically insignificant relationship with MKTPZ. However, in contrary FRVS is non- linear (negative) and also statistically insignificant to MKTPZ. Furthermore, the results of the test of the overall significance of the model using F-statistics shows that the entire model is statistically significant. We arrive at this conclusion because the F-statistics of 0.938073 is greater than the F-probability which is statistically near zero as: 0.000143. The coefficient of multiple determinations (R2) indicates that approximately 75% of total variation in the dependent variable (MKTPZ) is explained by the independent variables in the model. This means that the model is a good fit. Finally, the Durbin-Watson statistics, a rule of thumb for the measure of autocorrelation is greater than the R2 (1.228950>0.745430), thus indicating the absence of first order autocorrelation.

From the t-statistics and its associated probabilities test shows that the parameters which are foreign exchange rate (FXGR), foreign direct investments on stocks (FDISMKT) and foreign reserves (FRVS) respectively as proxy of global financial crisis except the constant term are not statistically significant at 5% level. Thus, we therefore, accept the null hypotheses and conclude that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance. Based on existing economic theory that, if the foreign exchange rate is devalued it will increase foreign direct investment or mobilizes capital inflow and invariably increase market capitalization. Thus, this motive of regulating foreign exchange rate to attarct foreign investment and to increase foreign reserves to strengthen the local currency is overturned in this model. Analyst and market insiders have given various reasons for the persistence fall in the prices of stock in the market ranging from budget delay, exit by foreign investors to other profit making ventures and price manipulation by insiders, but this result and the continued bearish trend have falsified the postulation. Now we can say that policies of regulators must have played a negative role in deepening the recession or the financial crisis, as many of the policies acted out of line with the realities on ground in the Nigerian stock market. These include the withdrawal of the margin facility by the apex bank, the uniform end of the year financial statement by banks, over subscription, greed and ignorance, domestic monetary and financial policies, etc. Only the intercept has significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. This confirms that other variables not capture in the model affected the market capitalization as the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

5.2 Summary of Findings

The study findings are summarized as follows:

Foreign exchange rate has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign direct investments on stocks have positive but insignificant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign reserves have no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

The study also found that 25% of other factors not accounted for in the study tend to be causal factors of shocks for Nigerian stock market in response to the global financial crisis.

5.3 Conclusion

The crux of this project examined the impact of global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market performance; with particular interest to proxy the impact variable (global financial crisis) as foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment on stocks and foreign reserves and market capitalization as stock market performance proxy. The study carried out a thorough comprehensive related literature review and found that there was no consensus among the researchers on the studied topic, some agree with significant implications while others submitted entire negative and insignificant implications. The ordinary least square regression model was employed to test the parameters and the t-test was used to test the three hypotheses outlined in the study to give clarity of purpose. The outcome of the test shows that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. Thus, this is not withstanding that, the global financial crisis has cause an unprecedented process of shocks on the Nigerian stock market operations, resulting to enormous capital flight that shakes its operations in the system. Our conclusion therefore, is that, there should be a proactive and effective regulatory system redesigned for the successful operation of the Nigerian stock Market and as well as to allow privatization policy to strive. This will motivate domestic and allied investors not to relent in their investment and developmental strives in the Nigerian stock market as to better the economy at large.

5.4 Recommendations

From the empirical analysis and results obtained from the T- test, we are constrained to recommend as follows:

Government and regulatory authorities should put in place workable and effective policies to check the vast range of foreign exchange rate disparity in order to attract capital inflow.

Improve the declining market capitalization by encouraging more foreign investors to participate and invest in the market. This is because capital inflow and market capitalization are positively related.

Restore confidence to the market by regulatory authorities through ensuring transparency and fair trading transactions and dealings in the stock exchange.

Ensure peace and stability in the socio-economy and the political system of the nation by stopping religion and ethnic crisis. This will also encourage more foreign investors into the system.

We also recommend: Impact of information difference on the Nigerian stock market performance as an area to re-examine.

Discussion of Results, Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Discussion of Results

Table 1.5 shows the relationship between the global financial crisis and the Nigerian stock market for the period under study. Using the a priori criteria of evaluating the parameters, except the constant term, all other variables met no a priori expectations hence not fulfilling the economic criterion of the model. The results show that FXGR is linear (positive) and statistically insignificant to MKTPZ while, FDISMKT also have a linear (positive) and statistically insignificant relationship with MKTPZ. However, in contrary FRVS is non- linear (negative) and also statistically insignificant to MKTPZ. Furthermore, the results of the test of the overall significance of the model using F-statistics shows that the entire model is statistically significant. We arrive at this conclusion because the F-statistics of 0.938073 is greater than the F-probability which is statistically near zero as: 0.000143. The coefficient of multiple determinations (R2) indicates that approximately 75% of total variation in the dependent variable (MKTPZ) is explained by the independent variables in the model. This means that the model is a good fit. Finally, the Durbin-Watson statistics, a rule of thumb for the measure of autocorrelation is greater than the R2 (1.228950>0.745430), thus indicating the absence of first order autocorrelation.

From the t-statistics and its associated probabilities test shows that the parameters which are foreign exchange rate (FXGR), foreign direct investments on stocks (FDISMKT) and foreign reserves (FRVS) respectively as proxy of global financial crisis except the constant term are not statistically significant at 5% level. Thus, we therefore, accept the null hypotheses and conclude that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance. Based on existing economic theory that, if the foreign exchange rate is devalued it will increase foreign direct investment or mobilizes capital inflow and invariably increase market capitalization. Thus, this motive of regulating foreign exchange rate to attarct foreign investment and to increase foreign reserves to strengthen the local currency is overturned in this model. Analyst and market insiders have given various reasons for the persistence fall in the prices of stock in the market ranging from budget delay, exit by foreign investors to other profit making ventures and price manipulation by insiders, but this result and the continued bearish trend have falsified the postulation. Now we can say that policies of regulators must have played a negative role in deepening the recession or the financial crisis, as many of the policies acted out of line with the realities on ground in the Nigerian stock market. These include the withdrawal of the margin facility by the apex bank, the uniform end of the year financial statement by banks, over subscription, greed and ignorance, domestic monetary and financial policies, etc. Only the intercept has significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. This confirms that other variables not capture in the model affected the market capitalization as the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

5.2 Summary of Findings

The study findings are summarized as follows:

Foreign exchange rate has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign direct investments on stocks have positive but insignificant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign reserves have no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

The study also found that 25% of other factors not accounted for in the study tend to be causal factors of shocks for Nigerian stock market in response to the global financial crisis.

5.3 Conclusion

The crux of this project examined the impact of global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market performance; with particular interest to proxy the impact variable (global financial crisis) as foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment on stocks and foreign reserves and market capitalization as stock market performance proxy. The study carried out a thorough comprehensive related literature review and found that there was no consensus among the researchers on the studied topic, some agree with significant implications while others submitted entire negative and insignificant implications. The ordinary least square regression model was employed to test the parameters and the t-test was used to test the three hypotheses outlined in the study to give clarity of purpose. The outcome of the test shows that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. Thus, this is not withstanding that, the global financial crisis has cause an unprecedented process of shocks on the Nigerian stock market operations, resulting to enormous capital flight that shakes its operations in the system. Our conclusion therefore, is that, there should be a proactive and effective regulatory system redesigned for the successful operation of the Nigerian stock Market and as well as to allow privatization policy to strive. This will motivate domestic and allied investors not to relent in their investment and developmental strives in the Nigerian stock market as to better the economy at large.

5.4 Recommendations

From the empirical analysis and results obtained from the T- test, we are constrained to recommend as follows:

Government and regulatory authorities should put in place workable and effective policies to check the vast range of foreign exchange rate disparity in order to attract capital inflow.

Improve the declining market capitalization by encouraging more foreign investors to participate and invest in the market. This is because capital inflow and market capitalization are positively related.

Restore confidence to the market by regulatory authorities through ensuring transparency and fair trading transactions and dealings in the stock exchange.

Ensure peace and stability in the socio-economy and the political system of the nation by stopping religion and ethnic crisis. This will also encourage more foreign investors into the system.

We also recommend: Impact of information difference on the Nigerian stock market performance as an area to re-examine.

Discussion of Results, Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Discussion of Results

Table 1.5 shows the relationship between the global financial crisis and the Nigerian stock market for the period under study. Using the a priori criteria of evaluating the parameters, except the constant term, all other variables met no a priori expectations hence not fulfilling the economic criterion of the model. The results show that FXGR is linear (positive) and statistically insignificant to MKTPZ while, FDISMKT also have a linear (positive) and statistically insignificant relationship with MKTPZ. However, in contrary FRVS is non- linear (negative) and also statistically insignificant to MKTPZ. Furthermore, the results of the test of the overall significance of the model using F-statistics shows that the entire model is statistically significant. We arrive at this conclusion because the F-statistics of 0.938073 is greater than the F-probability which is statistically near zero as: 0.000143. The coefficient of multiple determinations (R2) indicates that approximately 75% of total variation in the dependent variable (MKTPZ) is explained by the independent variables in the model. This means that the model is a good fit. Finally, the Durbin-Watson statistics, a rule of thumb for the measure of autocorrelation is greater than the R2 (1.228950>0.745430), thus indicating the absence of first order autocorrelation.

From the t-statistics and its associated probabilities test shows that the parameters which are foreign exchange rate (FXGR), foreign direct investments on stocks (FDISMKT) and foreign reserves (FRVS) respectively as proxy of global financial crisis except the constant term are not statistically significant at 5% level. Thus, we therefore, accept the null hypotheses and conclude that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance. Based on existing economic theory that, if the foreign exchange rate is devalued it will increase foreign direct investment or mobilizes capital inflow and invariably increase market capitalization. Thus, this motive of regulating foreign exchange rate to attarct foreign investment and to increase foreign reserves to strengthen the local currency is overturned in this model. Analyst and market insiders have given various reasons for the persistence fall in the prices of stock in the market ranging from budget delay, exit by foreign investors to other profit making ventures and price manipulation by insiders, but this result and the continued bearish trend have falsified the postulation. Now we can say that policies of regulators must have played a negative role in deepening the recession or the financial crisis, as many of the policies acted out of line with the realities on ground in the Nigerian stock market. These include the withdrawal of the margin facility by the apex bank, the uniform end of the year financial statement by banks, over subscription, greed and ignorance, domestic monetary and financial policies, etc. Only the intercept has significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. This confirms that other variables not capture in the model affected the market capitalization as the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

5.2 Summary of Findings

The study findings are summarized as follows:

Foreign exchange rate has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign direct investments on stocks have positive but insignificant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign reserves have no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

The study also found that 25% of other factors not accounted for in the study tend to be causal factors of shocks for Nigerian stock market in response to the global financial crisis.

5.3 Conclusion

The crux of this project examined the impact of global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market performance; with particular interest to proxy the impact variable (global financial crisis) as foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment on stocks and foreign reserves and market capitalization as stock market performance proxy. The study carried out a thorough comprehensive related literature review and found that there was no consensus among the researchers on the studied topic, some agree with significant implications while others submitted entire negative and insignificant implications. The ordinary least square regression model was employed to test the parameters and the t-test was used to test the three hypotheses outlined in the study to give clarity of purpose. The outcome of the test shows that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. Thus, this is not withstanding that, the global financial crisis has cause an unprecedented process of shocks on the Nigerian stock market operations, resulting to enormous capital flight that shakes its operations in the system. Our conclusion therefore, is that, there should be a proactive and effective regulatory system redesigned for the successful operation of the Nigerian stock Market and as well as to allow privatization policy to strive. This will motivate domestic and allied investors not to relent in their investment and developmental strives in the Nigerian stock market as to better the economy at large.

5.4 Recommendations

From the empirical analysis and results obtained from the T- test, we are constrained to recommend as follows:

Government and regulatory authorities should put in place workable and effective policies to check the vast range of foreign exchange rate disparity in order to attract capital inflow.

Improve the declining market capitalization by encouraging more foreign investors to participate and invest in the market. This is because capital inflow and market capitalization are positively related.

Restore confidence to the market by regulatory authorities through ensuring transparency and fair trading transactions and dealings in the stock exchange.

Ensure peace and stability in the socio-economy and the political system of the nation by stopping religion and ethnic crisis. This will also encourage more foreign investors into the system.

We also recommend: Impact of information difference on the Nigerian stock market performance as an area to re-examine.

Discussion of Results, Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Discussion of Results

Table 1.5 shows the relationship between the global financial crisis and the Nigerian stock market for the period under study. Using the a priori criteria of evaluating the parameters, except the constant term, all other variables met no a priori expectations hence not fulfilling the economic criterion of the model. The results show that FXGR is linear (positive) and statistically insignificant to MKTPZ while, FDISMKT also have a linear (positive) and statistically insignificant relationship with MKTPZ. However, in contrary FRVS is non- linear (negative) and also statistically insignificant to MKTPZ. Furthermore, the results of the test of the overall significance of the model using F-statistics shows that the entire model is statistically significant. We arrive at this conclusion because the F-statistics of 0.938073 is greater than the F-probability which is statistically near zero as: 0.000143. The coefficient of multiple determinations (R2) indicates that approximately 75% of total variation in the dependent variable (MKTPZ) is explained by the independent variables in the model. This means that the model is a good fit. Finally, the Durbin-Watson statistics, a rule of thumb for the measure of autocorrelation is greater than the R2 (1.228950>0.745430), thus indicating the absence of first order autocorrelation.

From the t-statistics and its associated probabilities test shows that the parameters which are foreign exchange rate (FXGR), foreign direct investments on stocks (FDISMKT) and foreign reserves (FRVS) respectively as proxy of global financial crisis except the constant term are not statistically significant at 5% level. Thus, we therefore, accept the null hypotheses and conclude that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance. Based on existing economic theory that, if the foreign exchange rate is devalued it will increase foreign direct investment or mobilizes capital inflow and invariably increase market capitalization. Thus, this motive of regulating foreign exchange rate to attarct foreign investment and to increase foreign reserves to strengthen the local currency is overturned in this model. Analyst and market insiders have given various reasons for the persistence fall in the prices of stock in the market ranging from budget delay, exit by foreign investors to other profit making ventures and price manipulation by insiders, but this result and the continued bearish trend have falsified the postulation. Now we can say that policies of regulators must have played a negative role in deepening the recession or the financial crisis, as many of the policies acted out of line with the realities on ground in the Nigerian stock market. These include the withdrawal of the margin facility by the apex bank, the uniform end of the year financial statement by banks, over subscription, greed and ignorance, domestic monetary and financial policies, etc. Only the intercept has significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. This confirms that other variables not capture in the model affected the market capitalization as the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

5.2 Summary of Findings

The study findings are summarized as follows:

Foreign exchange rate has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign direct investments on stocks have positive but insignificant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign reserves have no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

The study also found that 25% of other factors not accounted for in the study tend to be causal factors of shocks for Nigerian stock market in response to the global financial crisis.

5.3 Conclusion

The crux of this project examined the impact of global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market performance; with particular interest to proxy the impact variable (global financial crisis) as foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment on stocks and foreign reserves and market capitalization as stock market performance proxy. The study carried out a thorough comprehensive related literature review and found that there was no consensus among the researchers on the studied topic, some agree with significant implications while others submitted entire negative and insignificant implications. The ordinary least square regression model was employed to test the parameters and the t-test was used to test the three hypotheses outlined in the study to give clarity of purpose. The outcome of the test shows that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. Thus, this is not withstanding that, the global financial crisis has cause an unprecedented process of shocks on the Nigerian stock market operations, resulting to enormous capital flight that shakes its operations in the system. Our conclusion therefore, is that, there should be a proactive and effective regulatory system redesigned for the successful operation of the Nigerian stock Market and as well as to allow privatization policy to strive. This will motivate domestic and allied investors not to relent in their investment and developmental strives in the Nigerian stock market as to better the economy at large.

5.4 Recommendations

From the empirical analysis and results obtained from the T- test, we are constrained to recommend as follows:

Government and regulatory authorities should put in place workable and effective policies to check the vast range of foreign exchange rate disparity in order to attract capital inflow.

Improve the declining market capitalization by encouraging more foreign investors to participate and invest in the market. This is because capital inflow and market capitalization are positively related.

Restore confidence to the market by regulatory authorities through ensuring transparency and fair trading transactions and dealings in the stock exchange.

Ensure peace and stability in the socio-economy and the political system of the nation by stopping religion and ethnic crisis. This will also encourage more foreign investors into the system.

We also recommend: Impact of information difference on the Nigerian stock market performance as an area to re-examine.

Discussion of Results, Summary of Findings, Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 Discussion of Results

Table 1.5 shows the relationship between the global financial crisis and the Nigerian stock market for the period under study. Using the a priori criteria of evaluating the parameters, except the constant term, all other variables met no a priori expectations hence not fulfilling the economic criterion of the model. The results show that FXGR is linear (positive) and statistically insignificant to MKTPZ while, FDISMKT also have a linear (positive) and statistically insignificant relationship with MKTPZ. However, in contrary FRVS is non- linear (negative) and also statistically insignificant to MKTPZ. Furthermore, the results of the test of the overall significance of the model using F-statistics shows that the entire model is statistically significant. We arrive at this conclusion because the F-statistics of 0.938073 is greater than the F-probability which is statistically near zero as: 0.000143. The coefficient of multiple determinations (R2) indicates that approximately 75% of total variation in the dependent variable (MKTPZ) is explained by the independent variables in the model. This means that the model is a good fit. Finally, the Durbin-Watson statistics, a rule of thumb for the measure of autocorrelation is greater than the R2 (1.228950>0.745430), thus indicating the absence of first order autocorrelation.

From the t-statistics and its associated probabilities test shows that the parameters which are foreign exchange rate (FXGR), foreign direct investments on stocks (FDISMKT) and foreign reserves (FRVS) respectively as proxy of global financial crisis except the constant term are not statistically significant at 5% level. Thus, we therefore, accept the null hypotheses and conclude that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance. Based on existing economic theory that, if the foreign exchange rate is devalued it will increase foreign direct investment or mobilizes capital inflow and invariably increase market capitalization. Thus, this motive of regulating foreign exchange rate to attarct foreign investment and to increase foreign reserves to strengthen the local currency is overturned in this model. Analyst and market insiders have given various reasons for the persistence fall in the prices of stock in the market ranging from budget delay, exit by foreign investors to other profit making ventures and price manipulation by insiders, but this result and the continued bearish trend have falsified the postulation. Now we can say that policies of regulators must have played a negative role in deepening the recession or the financial crisis, as many of the policies acted out of line with the realities on ground in the Nigerian stock market. These include the withdrawal of the margin facility by the apex bank, the uniform end of the year financial statement by banks, over subscription, greed and ignorance, domestic monetary and financial policies, etc. Only the intercept has significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. This confirms that other variables not capture in the model affected the market capitalization as the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

5.2 Summary of Findings

The study findings are summarized as follows:

Foreign exchange rate has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign direct investments on stocks have positive but insignificant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

Foreign reserves have no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study.

The study also found that 25% of other factors not accounted for in the study tend to be causal factors of shocks for Nigerian stock market in response to the global financial crisis.

5.3 Conclusion

The crux of this project examined the impact of global financial crisis on the Nigerian stock market performance; with particular interest to proxy the impact variable (global financial crisis) as foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment on stocks and foreign reserves and market capitalization as stock market performance proxy. The study carried out a thorough comprehensive related literature review and found that there was no consensus among the researchers on the studied topic, some agree with significant implications while others submitted entire negative and insignificant implications. The ordinary least square regression model was employed to test the parameters and the t-test was used to test the three hypotheses outlined in the study to give clarity of purpose. The outcome of the test shows that the global financial crisis has no significant impact on the Nigerian stock market performance for the period under study. Thus, this is not withstanding that, the global financial crisis has cause an unprecedented process of shocks on the Nigerian stock market operations, resulting to enormous capital flight that shakes its operations in the system. Our conclusion therefore, is that, there should be a proactive and effective regulatory system redesigned for the successful operation of the Nigerian stock Market and as well as to allow privatization policy to strive. This will motivate domestic and allied investors not to relent in their investment and developmental strives in the Nigerian stock market as to better the economy at large.

5.4 Recommendations

From the empirical analysis and results obtained from the T- test, we are constrained to recommend as follows:

Government and regulatory authorities should put in place workable and effective policies to check the vast range of foreign exchange rate disparity in order to attract capital inflow.

Improve the declining market capitalization by encouraging more foreign investors to participate and invest in the market. This is because capital inflow and market capitalization are positively related.

Restore confidence to the market by regulatory authorities through ensuring transparency and fair trading transactions and dealings in the stock exchange.

Ensure peace and stability in the socio-economy and the political system of the nation by stopping religion and ethnic crisis. This

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